Abstract: Changes in 5G architecture have exceeded expectations.
The explosion of 5G business traffic is the source, and the inability to infinitely expand spectrum resources is the direct reason. The 5G system architecture has to be adjusted, and the new architecture fronthaul network C-RAN emerged as the times require.
The application scenarios of 5G mainly include enhanced mobile broadband, large-scale machine communication, and high-reliability and low-latency communication. Compared with 4G, bandwidth requirements are increased by 100 times and delay requirements are reduced by 10 times.
In limited spectrum resource planning, the needs of business standards can only be met by adjusting the network system architecture.
The market has recognized the trend of architectural changes, but has failed to further quantify the increment of each system equipment.
Under the new architecture, optical fiber and cable changes have exceeded expectations.
5G’s C-RAN architecture will lead to a large-scale increase in demand for optical fiber and cables. Taking into account the reuse of optical fibers, we estimate that 5G’s demand for optical fiber and cables will reach at least 600 million core kilometers in the next three years, nearly 1,000 core kilometers. billion market space, which is 3 to 4 times that of 4G.
Different from the chimney-style and star-distributed access network architecture of the traditional 3G/4G era, the 5G fronthaul network architecture will fully apply technologies such as network virtualization, wireless cloudification, and mobile edge computing. Centralized deployment saves site resources and improves air interface resource utilization efficiency, which highlights the value of fronthaul networks and greatly increases the demand for optical fiber and cables.
5G’s demand for optical fiber and cable will exceed that of FTTH, and the boom cycle of optical fiber and cable will continue.
The global demand for optical fiber and cable is tightening, and 5G demand will drive the industry’s continued boom cycle.
The market believes that after the boom cycle of the past two years, the industry will enter a downward trend due to the decline in capital expenditures of operators this year and next.
We believe that 5G cycle transmission comes first. Before 5G is officially commercialized in 2020, optical communications will be the first sub-sector to benefit from communications infrastructure.
At the same time, the market ignores the impact of the competitive landscape of its own industry. As a single communication product, optical fiber and cable will not be replaced by technology in the next ten years. At the same time, Huawei and ZTE will not easily enter the optical fiber and cable industry. And judging from the results of China Mobile’s Phase II optical fiber and cable bidding this year, the share of centralized procurement is obviously concentrated in leading companies. We expect this trend to continue.
