The number of operators' annual user additions fell by 66% year-on-year. Is the market dividend shifting from pursuing the new to being conservative?
The latest report cards handed over by the three major operators are still "uneven bitterness and happiness".
Data show that in December 2015, China Mobile had a net increase of 1.053 million users, bringing the total number to 826 million; of which 4G users had a net increase of 24.959 million, bringing the total number to 312 million; and China Telecom has also steadily improved. Its mobile users increased by 1.33 million in December, bringing the total to 198 million. Correspondingly, China Unicom's mobile users dropped by a net of 262,000 in December, bringing the total to 287 million.
If this number is enlarged to the whole of last year, the development of the telecommunications industry is hardly optimistic.
In 2015, the total number of mobile users of the three operators reached 1.31 billion, and the total net increase of users was only 19.446 million. In 2013 and 2014, this number was 123.539 million and 57.585 million respectively. The number of incremental users dropped by 66% year-on-year.
This also means that the demographic dividend that has supported the rapid development of the telecommunications industry for more than ten years has declined, and tapping the existing market potential has become a top priority.
2015: The competitive situation has changed significantly
In the past few months, the "highlights" of the telecommunications industry have been constantly staged. First, the three major operators collectively changed their managers and "uncleared the traffic" to cater to users. Then, the former chairman of China Telecom, Chang Xiaobing, was double-regulated, and then When China Telecom and China Unicom "joined forces for warmth", the development trend of the telecommunications industry changed suddenly.
In fact, China Unicom has lost users for the 11th consecutive month.
From February to December last year, China Unicom lost a total of 12.524 million mobile users.
China Mobile and China Telecom performed strongly, and the number of users increased every month.
Whether it is the new normal of state-owned enterprises adjusting their restructuring methods and cooperation and sharing, or in order to restrain China Mobile and achieve win-win cooperation, "grouping for warmth" has become one of the shortcuts for China Unicom to get out of the quagmire.
In November last year, China Unicom announced that it had formulated the "Sharing Recommendations for China Unicom and Telecom's 4G Networks" ; Subsequently, China Unicom and China Telecom jointly released the "Six-Mode All-Network Terminal White Paper" on the terminal industry chain; this month, the two companies also signed a strategic cooperation agreement to "co-create and share resources and improve customer service." Will carry out in-depth cooperation in five aspects, and said that cooperation at the capital level will also be carried out in the future.
The industry generally believes that cooperation between China Telecom and China Unicom is a good way out.
But this kind of teaming up for warmth is not immediate. The reason is that the telecommunications industry has entered the "new normal" of inventory competition and dominance in the 4G era.
On the one hand, the three-country struggle for hegemony in the 3G era has completely transformed into a dominant player in the 4G era.
Data show that China Mobile’s 4G users increased by 24.959 million in December last year. Cumulative users The number reached 826 million, far exceeding China Telecom’s 200 million and China Unicom’s 287 million; although the total number of mobile business users of the three operators exceeds 1.31 billion, China Mobile accounts for most of the domestic mobile business.
< p>On the other hand, the migration of users to 4G is accelerating.
China Telecom’s 3G/4G users increased by 2.1 million to 143 million in December 2015; China Mobile’s total 4G users reached 312 million ; China Unicom’s 3G/4G users increased by 3.612 million in December 2015 to 184 million.
This seems to have returned to the competitive situation in the 2G era.
The industry believes that an issue that cannot be ignored is the growth rate of 4G user penetration.The development of 3G has exceeded five years in one year. Although there are still a large number of user resources still in 2G and 3G, in such a rapid development process, this part of the dividend may be exhausted soon. The next Where are the growth points?
2016: "Chasing the new" turns to "conservative"
Not only is the demographic dividend gradually disappearing, but the implementation of the business tax to VAT reform in the telecommunications industry and the decline in unit prices of telecommunications services have also reduced the profitability of the three major basic telecommunications operators. Judging from the current industry trends, the unit prices of services such as traffic in the telecommunications industry have been reduced. It's a big trend.
For example, China Mobile has recently significantly lowered the 4G threshold: the 4G Flying Monthly Package threshold has been reduced from 38 yuan to 18 yuan, and a new 28 yuan tier has been added.
Among them, the 18 yuan 4G Feixiang package includes caller ID, free domestic calls and 100M traffic; the 28 yuan package adds 50 minutes of domestic calling time on this basis.
Similar to the previous 4G packages, the newly added 18 yuan and 28 yuan Flying Packages still continue to have the same price nationwide, with no long-distance and roaming charges.
In addition, the eagerness of virtual operators has brought more variables to the development of the telecommunications industry in 2016.
Data show that as of the end of 2015, my country’s virtual The number of operating users has reached 20.5 million.
Especially in the past three months, more than 3 million new users have been added every month.
Since the first batch of companies received licenses on December 26, 2013. So far, a total of 42 companies have obtained virtual operation pilot licenses.
Since the birth of the first virtual operator’s mobile phone users in the 170 segment on March 31, 2014, 39 companies have officially issued numbers, and 7 companies have officially issued numbers. The number of users exceeds one million.
Among them, the fastest users have exceeded 4 million.
Virtual operators have high hopes as a breakthrough for private capital to enter the communications industry.
After two years of development, the industry mentality has changed significantly.
According to the deployment of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, mobile communications resale. The business pilot ended at the end of 2015, and it is planned to be fully opened to private investment in 2016.
However, as the pilot "guerrilla warfare" turns into a full-scale "mobile warfare", virtual operators will not stop at the current "catfishing". "Character.
The industry believes that the main tone of competition in 2016 will shift from "chasing the new" to "conservative".
In this normal state Under the current situation, operators will shift from incremental users to existing users, and business operations will shift from voice operations to traffic operations, and from mobile communication services to innovative full-service services. The three major operators will compete with virtual operators.
< p>How to tap the existing market?
For many years to come, 2G/3G users continue to switch to 4G networks, which is bound to become the main theme of the industry.
For the entire industry, it is necessary to shift from scale development to connotation development, from pursuing new markets to tapping existing markets, and promoting traffic management. , further segment user needs
Specifically, the three major operators with different situations may have different focuses.
China Mobile’s own The market space for existing users to switch networks is large enough, which means that their market strategies are more self-oriented, such as maintaining user retention. However, China Telecom and China Unicom are different, especially as China Unicom's overall users are still continuing to lose. This This means that in the future, the exploration of incremental markets will require more external expansion and business innovation, and the industry is looking forward to the cooperation between the two.
Not only are operators facing a development “ceiling”, but they are also facing a double attack from virtual operators and Internet companies. In 2016, operators should take more actions in terms of institutional reform, cross-border cooperation, and 4G business innovation.
